This tool does not tell you what to bet. It shows you what the data says about a market — a player’s record, the matchup, and what the bookmakers are charging — so you can make your own call. Everything below explains how to read it.
The numbers on a row
Every suggestion shows the same handful of figures. These two matter most.
Model %
How often we think the bet lands. 73% model means 73 times in 100. It comes from the
player’s own record, the matchup, and the sport’s model — then it is capped at what he has
actually done, so a model that gets carried away is pulled back to his real form.
Edge %
What that estimate is worth at the price. It is not “22% more likely”. It is expected profit per dollar.
The price implies 1 ÷ 1.67 = 60% — that is the break-even rate
The model says 73%
0.73 × $1.67 = $1.22 back per $1 staked → +22% edge
So a positive edge means the model thinks the book is too short. It says nothing about any one bet: at 73%, losing happens more than once in four.
The rest
| Score | How far above or below his usual level this projection sits. Useful for comparing two players, not for judging a price. |
| DVP | Defence versus position: how much this opponent gives up in that stat
compared with the league. +11% DVP is a soft matchup, a negative is a hard one. |
| Fair price | The market’s own price with the bookmaker’s margin removed — what the bet would cost in a fair market. |
| x avg · n gm | His average in that stat, and how many games it is based on. A small sample is a warning, not a trend. |
| Orange chips | Things working against the bet. They are shown even when the overall read is positive. |
The five tabs
| Fixture | Every game in view. Tap one to open it: signals, the market reads, the visual tools and the Multi Builder for that game. |
| Degen Crew | The same signals across all games at once, grouped into tiles, plus the Degenerates builds and the Multi Builder. |
| Odds | Raw prices from every bookmaker we pull, searchable. |
| Stats | Player and team numbers: scanners, team for/allowed, and defence versus position. |
| Results | The tipping record in units. Never in dollars. |
How a signal is built
A signal is not “the model likes him”. Every tile has a rule, and a row only appears when the rule is met and the price still pays. That is why a tile is often empty: a strong read at a short price is filtered out rather than listed.
Two universal ones set the pattern:
- Green Lights — the model and the price both say over, and the price pays for it.
- Death Riders — the model and the price both say under.
A player appears once per tile, showing his strongest market, so one player the model likes cannot fill the whole tile.
The tools
Deep Dive (the telescope)
Everything behind one bet: the model’s read, his last 20 games against that line, his record cut seven ways, what actually drives that market, both teams’ numbers, the game script, his role and availability, and every bookmaker’s price.
Check My Bet
Type a bet in plain words — Daicos 30+ disposals — and it checks it the same way.
Check My Multi does the same for a whole ticket, including how correlated the legs are.
Multi Builder
Builds a multi for one game. Filter by market, bookmaker and signal; nudge every line safer or riskier; every leg is priced at one bookmaker so the ticket can actually be placed.
My Card and the live tracker
The + on any row adds it to your card. During the game the tracker shows each leg’s
progress live. A market the feed cannot see says not tracked rather than pretending.
Degenerates
Four ready-made builds: The Train (one banker per game), The Pyramid (one stat on falling lines), The Yankee (four same-game multis as an 11-bet system), and The Ladder (a running $10 challenge).
Every tile, in one line
Universal
| Green Lights | The model and the price both say over, and the price pays for it. |
| Death Riders | The model and the price both say under. |
| Streakers | Cleared the posted line, game after game |
| Elite Matchups | League’s best against the softest defences |
| Bunnies | Cleared this line in every meeting with them |
| Bogey | Never cleared this line against them |
| Form Alerts | Running hot or cold against their own season |
| Tackle Machines | Tackle volume into an opponent that concedes it |
AFL
| Snags | League’s top goal kickers into a soft goals defence |
| Hunting Grounds | Players who feast at this ground |
| Kick In Merchants | Kick-in takers against an inaccurate attack |
NFL
| Tuddy Targets | Red-zone royalty into a soft TD defence |
| Chunk Plays | Explosive-play streaks |
| Sack Artists | Rushers into a leaky offensive line |
| Pick Watch | Interception risk into a ball-hawk defence |
| Kicker Matchup | Projected points against the posted line |
EPL
| Locked In | Cleared the posted line in 4 of the last 5 |
| First Goal | Opener value: his side scores first, and it’s him |
| Tap-Ins | Accurate shooters, priced on shots on target |
| Penalty Kings | First-choice takers the model backs to score |
| Brick Wall | Keepers in line for saves |
| Fouled Again | Foul volume, whistle and opponent |
| Mismatch Alert | Shooters into a defence that leaks shots |
MLB
| Sluggers | Platoon power edges, priced on total bases |
| Runners | Top of the order against a walk-prone arm |
| RBI Men | The heart of the order against a hittable arm |
| Free Passes | Patient hitters against a wild arm |
| Homers | Home-run spots the model backs |
| Strike Time | Starters projected over their K line |
| Grinders | Starters in a tough spot: under their K line |
| Cold Bats | Hitless skids where the under is value |
| Due / Unlucky | Contact quality running ahead of results |
| Running Hot | Results running ahead of contact quality |
NBL
| Slashers | Top scorers into a soft defence |
| Splashers | Top shooters into a defence that concedes threes |
| Dishers | Top passers into a defence that concedes assists |
| Boarders | Top rebounders into a defence that concedes boards |
| Double Trouble | Double-double threats, priced on the leg that decides it |
| Next Man Up | Teammates of an absent regular, with the measured gain priced in |
NHL
| Snipers | Top shot volume into a soft defence |
| Producers | Top point-getters into a soft defence |
| Playmakers | Top passers into a soft defence |
| Finishers | Top goal-scorers into a soft defence |
| Power Play | PP regulars against a penalty-prone opponent |
Common traps
One bet proves nothing. At 70%, three losses in a row is ordinary. The edge only shows up over hundreds of bets.
A big edge deserves suspicion. If the model is far away from the market, ask why the bookmaker is that short. Sometimes they know something we do not — a lineup change, an injury.
Check the sample. 5 gm next to a number means five games. That is not a trend.
Check the price is still there. Prices move. What we pulled may not be what you get.
A multi is not five good bets. Every leg multiplies the chance of losing, and legs from the same game move together.